Key Findings from Carroll College’s 2024 Election Poll

Election 2024 Exit Polling

Summary by Dr. Alex Street, astreet@carroll.edu 

(Helena, MT) As has been done since 2014, Carroll College political science students once again designed and conducted an election poll for the 2024 general election. This year, students carried out an in-person exit poll at randomly selected locations across Lewis and Clark County on November 5, 2024. The exit poll gathered a sample of 816 voters and yielded representative results; for example, 54% of respondents were voting for Jon Tester compared to 52% in the official county tally. Additionally, students distributed 900 mail-in surveys to Park County, MT, achieving a response rate of 19%. Park County was chosen for its alignment with statewide averages in the 2020 election. However, responses to this year’s mail survey were skewed toward more educated and Democratic-leaning voters, compared to the overall county demographics and election results.

Carroll College extends its heartfelt gratitude to the hundreds of Montanans who participated in this research. This report highlights some of the key findings, focusing on several intriguing patterns observed. For this summary, the analysis relies on data from the Lewis and Clark County sample. Additional details are available upon request.1

1.    Negative campaigns, negative votes?

The 2024 Presidential election, in particular, featured two candidates who engaged in harsh personal attacks. Many Americans see the country as deeply divided between supporters of political parties who deeply dislike those on the other side. To measure the extent of negative voting, students asked survey respondents, “Would you say your choice in the Presidential election is more a vote FOR your chosen candidate or AGAINST the other?” They also asked, “Regardless of how you voted today, do you tend to think of yourself as a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or No preference?” They found that it is actually the self-identified Independents (about 30% of respondents), and those who express No preference (another 10% of respondents) who were most likely to say that they voted against rather for a candidate. Only around a quarter of those who identify with a political party said they voted “more against,” compared to nearly half of the Independent/No preference voters. This pattern is illustrated in Figure 1, below.

1They will post the data by the end of 2024 on the following page, where data from earlier years are also publicly available: https://scholars.carroll.edu/collections/bf2904c2-4975-4205-8aee-84a69d041d57 

Election Exit Poll 2024 Figure 1
Figure 1. Negative voting by party identification

I was surprised by how much went into conducting surveys and polls! I have a newfound respect for those who attempt to do this kind of research.

Celi Chapman Class of 2027, Clancy, MT

2.    The veteran vote

The highest-profile contest in Montana in 2024 was between incumbent U.S. Senator Jon Tester (D) and Tim Sheehy (R). Both candidates appealed to veterans, with Tester having served as Chair of the U.S. Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs, whereas Sheehy is himself a veteran. Students found that while Sheehy beat Tester among voters who identified as currently serving or as veterans (12% of our sample), this was largely due to party. If anything, Sheehy did worse among veterans than other Republican candidates, such as Donald Trump. See Figure 2.

Election Exit Poll 2024 Figure 2
Figure 2. Republican candidate support among veterans

I learned that we tend to generalize people's political opinions. When submitting and analyzing the data, I discovered a wide range of split-ticket voters, volunteers, and unique responses to what the biggest issues in politics are. If we start treating voters as human compared to numbers, there is a new sense of optimism that can grow in politics.

Brad Tomasovic Class of 2027, Great Falls, MT

3.    Gender and education

The 2024 general election was only the second time in history that a woman has run as the Presidential nominee of a major U.S. political party. Kamala Harris (D) received more votes from women in their sample (55% of the two-party vote, i.e., setting aside third-party candidates) than from men (45% of the two-party vote). However, voters were also divided by education, with more educated voters generally tending to support Harris. The most educated men offered almost as much support to Harris (67%) as the most educated women (70%), but Harris received the support of only around a quarter of men with the lowest level of education (24%), whereas she had a higher baseline among women (40% among those with only a high school education). Overall, the gradient of support for Democrats by education is steeper for men than for women, as illustrated in Figure 3, below.

Election Exit Poll 2024 Figure 3
Figure 3. Support for Harris vs. Trump by gender and by education

I was most surprised by the willingness of Montanans to participate in our survey. Given the national trends of polarization, it's easy to assume few people would care to engage in research that is so political or that is something they might deem to be invasive. When exit polling, however, I was amazed by the number of people who contributed and helped us with our research despite its political nature. The willingness and kindness of our participants give me hope that as a country, we can continue to put community above politics.

Matt Yakawich Class of 2026, Missoula, MT

Acknowledgements

Carroll College appreciates the interest in the Political Science students’ survey and extends special thanks to those who participated. For any questions, please contact Dr. Alex Street, Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Carroll College, at astreet@carroll.edu.

I learned about how representative sampling, and remaining committed to it, is an important part of designing studies. I also learned a lot about the extensive process behind polling, from contacting the county, to reading the law, to stuffing hundreds of surveys into envelopes, to being committed to our poll even on our snowy, cold Election Day! I’m also super grateful for how many voters positively responded to filling out our poll.

Natalie Bahou Class of 2026, Pasadena, CA